KI
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue declined 0.1% to $3.662B (organic +1.7% on +1.0 ppt price/mix, +0.7 ppt volume); GAAP EPS was $0.15 and Adjusted EPS $0.26 as weakness in pediatric pain and APAC distribution offset strength in Self Care ex-pediatrics and Skin Health & Beauty .
- Gross margin expanded 80 bps YoY to 56.5% (adjusted GM down 80 bps to 58.7% due to prior-year non-recurring separation benefits); operating margin 13.2% (adjusted 19.2%) with higher brand investment funded by productivity and “Our Vue Forward” savings .
- 2025 guide: Net sales -1% to +1% (organic +2% to +4%, ~3% FX headwind), adjusted operating margin up YoY, and adjusted EPS flat to +2% including mid-single-digit FX drag; Q1 organic sales expected to decline low single digits due to destocking, China fixes, and temporary U.S. price/trade investments, with back-half acceleration targeted .
- Dividend declared at $0.205 per share payable Feb 26, 2025; governance backdrop includes Starboard nominations and ongoing shareholder engagement, cited but not discussed in detail on the call .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Productivity and cost actions drove FY gross margin expansion (+200 bps to 58.0%; adjusted +200 bps to 60.4%), enabling ~20% higher brand investment and still delivering FY adjusted EPS of $1.14, within guidance .
- Self Care excluding pediatric pain grew high single digits; Nicorette nearly +20%, Digestive mid-teens, Allergy high-single digits; company gained Self Care share in Q4 .
- Skin Health & Beauty returned to volume-led growth in Q4 (+2.6% organic), with double-digit organic growth in EMEA and Latin America and U.S. regained #1 Neutrogena face-care position across channels .
- Management tone: “We delivered on our 2024 profit commitments despite headwinds...” and plan to “accelerate performance” in 2025 supported by higher brand investments and efficiency gains .
-
What Went Wrong
- Pediatric pain category contracted significantly (≈-40% in China; ≈-11% U.S.), producing a double‑digit decline in the franchise and masking strength elsewhere; without pediatric pain, Q4 organic growth would have been ~2 ppt higher .
- Asia Pacific distribution disruption (secondary distributor liquidity/activation issues) drove order declines, with outsized impact on Essential Health; remediation (distributor replacement and reclaiming retailer activation) is underway and expected to take time .
- Q4 adjusted gross margin fell 80 bps YoY to 58.7% (lapping prior-year non-recurring separation benefits) and adjusted operating margin fell to 19.2% on higher brand investments despite productivity gains .
Financial Results
Headline P&L and margins
Segment net sales (YoY comparison)
Geographic mix (Q4 YoY)
KPIs (mix vs. volume; period-over-period contributions)
Non-GAAP reconciliations and additional detail (adjustments by type) are provided in the 8-K/press release .
Guidance Changes
Notes: Guidance excludes potential 2025 tariff impacts; management has contingency plans but did not embed tariffs in the outlook .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We delivered on our 2024 profit commitments despite headwinds that resulted in softer than expected sales growth and we enter 2025 as a more competitive company with stronger foundations.”
- CEO on pediatrics drag: “Total company organic sales growth without [pediatric pain] would have been about 2 points higher in the fourth quarter and about 1 point higher for the full year 2024.”
- CFO on cadence: “Combined, [destocking and strategic price investments] will account for a 3- to 4-point headwind in the first quarter…organic sales to decline low single digits in Q1…much stronger in the back half.”
- CFO on 2025 profitability: “These combined savings will more than offset the investments…As a result, we’re planning for adjusted operating margin to expand year-over-year.”
Q&A Highlights
- Near-term top line and cadence: Q1 organic sales decline LSD from pediatrics destocking, China RTM remediation, and stepped-up U.S. trade; Q2 moderates; back half stronger (absent Q4’24 headwinds and with initiatives taking hold) .
- Category growth: Expect 2–3% category growth in 2025 with less pricing contribution versus 2024; private label penetration broadly flat to down in aggregate .
- Pricing and trade: Temporary U.S. negative value realization in H1 from selective price reductions/trade; expect positive value realization in H2 outside U.S.; funded by efficiencies and modest GM accretion .
- Margin cadence: More muted in H1, improving into Q3; typical seasonal pattern with Q3 stronger and customary Q4 plant costs .
- Tariffs: Exposure mainly U.S./Canada; levers include alternate sourcing and potential pricing; not included in guidance .
- China distribution: Replacing weak distributors; reclaiming retailer activation for better visibility/execution .
- Cash conversion: 2024 FCF $1.3B vs $2.7B in 2023; progressing but not reaching 90–100% conversion in 2025 due to separation/IT investments; line of sight thereafter .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for Q4 2024 was not retrievable at time of analysis due to a rate limit, so we cannot present a beat/miss vs Street here (attempted via S&P Global GetEstimates; unavailable). As a result, we anchor to company-reported actuals only and note that near-term Street models may need to reflect management’s Q1 low-single-digit organic decline and back-half weighted recovery commentary .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term setup: H1 headwinds from pediatrics destocking, China RTM remediation, and U.S. price/trade investments pressure growth/margins; Q1 organic LSD decline is guided—be cautious on early-2025 prints .
- Back-half acceleration: Management expects stronger H2 on normalization of pediatrics seasonality, China execution improvements, distribution gains, and more impactful innovation and media; adjusted operating margin targeted to expand in 2025 despite FX .
- Mix and pricing: Temporary negative U.S. value realization in H1 should give way to positive global value realization in H2; monitor elasticity and competitive response to selective price cuts .
- Regional watchpoints: EMEA/LATAM remain growth engines; Asia Pacific recovery hinges on distributor transition and retailer activation control; track APAC sales/volume normalization .
- Self Care resilience ex‑pediatrics: Strong momentum across Nicorette, Digestive, and Allergy suggests underlying demand health; recovery in pediatrics and seasonality will be a key quarterly swing factor .
- Margin drivers: Ongoing productivity, “Our Vue Forward” savings and planning/AI tools aim to fund higher brand investments and still expand adjusted operating margin; monitor gross margin cadence and A&M efficiency .
- Policy/FX risks: Guide excludes tariffs; FX a ~3% headwind to 2025 top line and mid-single-digit drag to EPS—watch USD and tariff implementation headlines for estimate revisions .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Q4 effective tax rate 15.3% (adjusted 17.7%); full-year ETR 27.2% (adjusted 25.5%) .
- Net debt at Dec 29, 2024: $7.5B (cash $1.1B; total debt $8.6B) .
- Dividend declared: $0.205/share payable Feb 26, 2025 .
- Shareholder engagement: Company acknowledged Starboard’s nominations and prior discussions; no call commentary beyond focusing on results and outlook .
All figures are company-reported GAAP or non-GAAP as indicated; see 8-K and press release for reconciliations and definitions .